r2i forum

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2010 1:03 pm**

Where there's a will, there's always a way:

Shanghai in 1990

Shanghai in 2010

This particular comparison blew me away. I can't think of any other location on this planet that was developed in a matter of 20 years, to this contrasting proportion :thup: Watch closely each section of that picture, on either side of the river. Mind boggling!

What makes Chinese pull through something like this while India and other countries can't match even 20% of that speed & quality?

PS: Me neither a fan of communism, nor a fan of ruthlessness that is a part of Chinese administration which focuses on "showcasing". Still.. there are a lot of things they got it right in this Shanghai mega transformation.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2010 1:42 pm**

Great pic, KirKS! Shanghai and Beijing are completely unbelievable. The picture is dramatic, and the actual transformation is even deeper and broader than the pics indicate. The civic infrastructure and quality of construction in these cities is actually better than what I've seen in North American and European cities, and it's not limited to a small "showcase" area, contrary to what we Indians would like to believe. There are expressways after expressways, over-abundant power/water supply, over provisioned air terminals, amazing public transport systems, well balanced urban areas with parks, recreation and open spaces, and corners haven't been cut in most cases.

China's version of "benevolent dictatorship" seems to have been the fastest path from grinding poverty to glory in recent decades at least for East Asia - it worked for Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia and now China. Top-down planning has actually worked out well in most facets in China, and the government loosened its grip at just the right moment a couple of decades back and avoided wide unrest. The government has actually put in place the right incentives for local governments and junior officials to perform for the benefit of society. Now the society is in a equilibrium where public is generally at rest with status quo as long as there is rapid continued growth. And this incentivises government to keep doing their best to fuel further growth.
Of course, sometimes top down planning does go wrong - as evidenced by China's 3G policy or their recent real estate over-reaction, but by and large the government there has played by the economics book in developing the country widely and deeply.

KirKS;295279Where there's a will, there's always a way:

Shanghai in 1990

Shanghai in 2010

This particular comparison blew me away. I can't think of any other location on this planet that was developed in a matter of 20 years, to this contrasting proportion :thup: Watch closely each section of that picture, on either side of the river. Mind boggling!

What makes Chinese pull through something like this while India and other countries can't match even 20% of that speed & quality?

PS: Me neither a fan of communism, nor a fan of ruthlessness that is a part of Chinese administration which focuses on "showcasing". Still.. there are a lot of things they got it right in this Shanghai mega transformation.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2010 1:56 pm**

return2del;295285 Of course, sometimes top down planning does go wrong - as evidenced by China's 3G policy or their recent real estate over-reaction, but by and large the government there has played by the economics book in developing the country widely and deeply.

For doing Top-down planning, you need:-

Compare that to India wherein there's no minimum intellect or demonstrated 'relevant' experience eligibility criteria. Ministries are awarded based on coalition politics power politics, rather than on merit. A minister for heavy industries may not know anything about engineering at all in India. The first few years are always for looting and only then real work starts. By then the guard is changed, so only loot continues. No punishment for abuse of system. Incapable of being ruthless where a government should be.

But still, I think there are many things that India can learn from China, even keeping systemic limitations on the table. My interest is to find out what they could be from more knowledgeable members here.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2010 2:28 pm**

KirKS;295288For doing Top-down planning, you need:-

Top intellect with proper training. I read somewhere that majority of the politburo members at Beijing are engineers
Need time to carry forward one's vision into action. 3 to 5 years is not sufficient.
Fear of punishment, all the way into execution, for corruption. (Still some crooks will always beat the system)
Ruthlessness to take unpopular decisions like permit system into metros (selective migration from rural areas), demolishing slums (can't do in votebank politics), taking on anyone who is a 'pain' in your path (even google wasn't spared), arm twisting even the world's most powerful motor companies to share trade secrets if they want a share of growth pie... etc.

Compare that to India wherein there's no minimum intellect or demonstrated 'relevant' experience eligibility criteria. Ministries are awarded based on coalition politics power politics, rather than on merit. A minister for heavy industries may not know anything about engineering at all in India. The first few years are always for looting and only then real work starts. By then the guard is changed, so only loot continues. No punishment for abuse of system. Incapable of being ruthless where a government should be.

Completely agree why it works in China and why it can't here. I was trying to answer your OP question of "What makes Chinese pull through something like this while India and other countries can't match even 20%.."

[QUOTE]
But still, I think there are many things that India can learn from China, even keeping systemic limitations on the table. My interest is to find out what they could be from more knowledgeable members here.

Some key learnings from China that come to mind that can be implemented here (at least partially):
- Focus singularly on building enabling infrastructure. Remove procedural roadblocks, and build sufficient capacity each time you build anything - build for 5-10 years later, not 10 years ago, as there are significant economies of scale
- Focus on identifying and addressing other macro longer term issues/constraints to growth - acquire commodity assets abroad, build wide coalitions, build numerous universities, establish a well thought out plan for skill-based immigration etc
- Set the right incentives for local governments (could be done by deciding allocations based on past performance) and increase internal accountability manifold; Aggressively reduce bureaucracy and redesign processes from scratch if needed
- Improve environment for FDI manifold (this can be done even if you are suspicious of foreign companies). Foreign companies are thirsty for any action in India and China. Don't create unnecessary barriers and uncertainties for them
- Focus on quality of any initiatives in addition to quantity, and aggressively track metrics for past performance
- Focus government spending on right priorities. Reduce subsidies and other economically wasteful spending, and plough that money into infrastructure buildout and education
- THINK BIG

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2010 2:59 pm**

China is really amazing. I visited China for first time in November 2009 and again in March 2010. I had very low expectations. I was shocked to see this country. Not even for a minute I felt like I was outside of USA. The progress they have made in last couple of decades is just unbeliveable. Not only tier-1 cities like Shanghai and Beijing, but I have traveled very extensively China and into tier-2 cities like Xiamen, Shenzhen, Qingdao, Nanjing, and they are all very nice with awesome infrastructure. My job is in manufacturing so I have seen the industrial parks ( hardcore manufacturing sectors - largely responsible for the growth in China) which have huge factories and let me tell you that those industrial parks just as nice if not better than IT parks in Bangalore or Pune. You can't even compare the factories in India to these factories. Really impressive country and yes we can learn a lot form China.

I read in one of the books that I = C -12. ( India is 12 years behind than China - because India opened for foreign investors in 1991 as compared to China in 1979). I really hope that we can be there in next 12-15 years.

Above pictures are surely very nice but I think one has to go there and see it to believe it.

Thanks

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2010 5:56 pm**

KirKS;295279PS: Me neither a fan of communism, nor a fan of ruthlessness that is a part of Chinese administration which focuses on "showcasing". Still.. there are a lot of things they got it right in this Shanghai mega transformation.

I was watching the following documentary last week--"Please Vote For Me".

It is interesting to observe the seeds of democracy being sown in China.

Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOiL6hN5mXg
Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpjhSk2f1H8
Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TbKif3i2DI
Part 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbSUYNlgYJI
Part 5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1A_naostFGc

While we talk about driving hazards in India, it was interesting to watch this video from China:

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=QESfEd180rQ

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2010 8:00 pm**

Nice pics, thanks. However having said that I do find the glitter a bit deceptive. Reasons I would not want India to emulate China.
1. Censorship (filtering of internet content)
2. Visas required to move into these cities from villages
3. Authoritarian government (that they grab land and evacuate people to embellish their skyline is no secret, radical policies such as one child policy..)

I am a fan of the Chinese culture, would prefer mera des anyday.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2010 8:32 pm**

beeamma;295370I am a fan of the Chinese culture, would prefer mera des anyday.

There is a forum for those that Return to China. Will dig up the URL (had posted it earlier elsewhere). Reading that forum, I get the impression that they don't even have the freedom to critique certain aspects of the happenings in China out of some fear (perhaps for the security of their near and dear ones back home?). They do discuss, like us, about the good things that is happening with China. Browsing that forum a while back, the threads are pretty similar with worries about language adoption for their kids, traffic, cost of living (a favorite everywhere), etc.

One thing that I noticed was that they never discussed anything about India. For that matter, they only cared about comparison to the US and no other country. That was an impression based on my brief browsing on that forum. :)

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2010 8:51 pm**

boca2blr;295383There is a forum for those that R2I to China.

That must be an oxymoron of sorts!

It's like saying, "I like cheeseburger, but without the cheese!" :wink

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2010 9:29 pm**

return2del;295295
Some key learnings from China that come to mind that can be implemented here (at least partially):
- Focus singularly on building enabling infrastructure. Remove procedural roadblocks, and build sufficient capacity each time you build anything - build for 5-10 years later, not 10 years ago, as there are significant economies of scale [/quote]
- A simple underpass for a busy intersection takes 3 years in India. I am seeing a few taking more time.
- Completion of national highways take forever (except that golden period of ABV). The current govt has scaled down even a meagre 16 Km to be built per day to 11 now. I just traveled through over 4500 KM of national highways in South India in a month. None of them would be free flowing traffic in 10 years from now.
- Newly constructed Airports like Bluru take 15 minutes to clear security. It's hardly 2 years old.
Overall, futuristic plans are luxury in India when such a huge backlog exists. Power generation is an area where we are not even at where 1990s demand was there.

return2del;295295 - Focus on identifying and addressing other macro longer term issues/constraints to growth - acquire commodity assets abroad, build wide coalitions, build numerous universities, establish a well thought out plan for skill-based immigration etc [/quote]
Assets abroad - Already in works throughout Asia & Africa.
Coalitions - Maybe happening, but seriously need partners in central Asia and SE Asia.
Universities - Great idea. I always wonder why India can't teach Chinese English in its universities. After all the world's largest supply of teachers is next to the world's largest supply of students
Immigration - A tricky issue for legal immigration in India. Remember the employment visa fiasco in Nov/Dec period? Illegal immigration becoming votebank is perfectly fine :p

return2del;295295 - Set the right incentives for local governments (could be done by deciding allocations based on past performance) and increase internal accountability manifold; Aggressively reduce bureaucracy and redesign processes from scratch if needed [/quote]
This one is very tough. After all bureaucrats run India as proxies to looter netas. How could they bell their own necks?

Accountability - Very hard. The last time I checked, majority of states in India couldn't even pay their state govt employees salary/pension with their revenue. All they do is work out coalition politics & milk the federal fund, which makes deficit grow exponentially.

return2del;295295 - Improve environment for FDI manifold (this can be done even if you are suspicious of foreign companies). Foreign companies are thirsty for any action in India and China. Don't create unnecessary barriers and uncertainties for them [/quote]
Bang on target. I was surprised to see an analysis yesterday wherein 2000-2007 FDI inflow from Mauritius to India was nearly 5 times that of FDI from USA :)) What magic did India do in Mauritius keeping aside Lalit Modi kind of 'back door' hawala transactions?

Also, the Global Investors' Meet held in Bengaluru last week got over Rs.4 lakh crores of MoUs. So yes, the potential is huge for states that have favorable environment. However, resourceful ones like Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar are facing maoist violence, dissuading FDI. So everything goes back to security situation wherein India has a very long way to go.

return2del;295295 - Focus on quality of any initiatives in addition to quantity, and aggressively track metrics for past performance [/quote]

For this you need stability at all stages of govt. Frequent elections & just survival fight isn't going to cut it.

return2del;295295 - Focus government spending on right priorities. Reduce subsidies and other economically wasteful spending, and plough that money into infrastructure buildout and education [/quote]
Subsidy - 2 Rupee KG rice in Andhra, 1 Re in TN, 3 in KA (not implemented though) for Rs.30 market rate rice?.. and you want subsidy to be reduced? :(

Education - The only state that got the priorities right was Kerala. Against the national avg of 3-6%, places like Tracancore got 15% money going to education. The results are there to see. Can it be replicated across the country? Maybe..

For the rest, you need visionary leaders.. not scamsters at realm.

return2del;295295 - THINK BIG

Sure they do.. Isn't India the only major country wherein Swiss bank stash is bigger than the country's official GDP? Sorry.. this part was pessimistic.

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Learning from China

Learning from China

Learning from China

Learning from China

Learning from China

Learning from China

Learning from China

Learning from China

Learning from China

Learning from China

Learning from China