Sensex 25000 by 2010 !!! (Part-II)

[RAJESH H DHRUVA]

Dear gnv,
Please excuse delays. The said post has skipped my attention.
1. Now that the Budget is already presented, immediate concerns of investor are addressed and with the road map of next 3 years been opened.
2. Shri Pranab Mukherjee needs to be congratulated for throwing surprises of reduced Income Tax; not increasing Service Tax; increasing Central Excise by a meagre of 2% as was expected; marginally reducing Corporate Tax by 0.75% in shape of 2.5% reduction of surcharge and at macro level, conveying a confidence of raising Rs. 25,000 crores, app. US$ 5.5 bn by disinvestment of shares of Government Companies ; another Rs. 36,000 crores from sale of 3G Spectrum mobile connectivity and also transparent bidding for Mining rights. The Finance Minister has left more money with middle class; has also promised an exercise of infotech governed Public Distribution System which will not only reduce corruption and inefficiencies, but will also add happiness to the lives of people at the lowest end of the society.
3. This Budget reaffirms the strength of Indian economy and the growth story of Indian corporate's profitability. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7% on a broad based economy indeed reflects the health of Indian corporates. 1 year forward Price Earning (PE) Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex shares at 1,060 translates into PE of 15.35 and PE to G of 2.2 - one of the lowest and very attractive PE to G across the world. The Finance Minister has reiterated committment of infrastructure development both urban and rural and the public welfare schemes moving towards direct payment and reduced income tax leaving higher disposal income with middle class will result into Capex and Consumer spending. Add to this, last 5 years Saving's rate of 35%+ and investment rate of 30%+ and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) of US$ 20 bn in first 3 quarters and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) investment of US$ 18.90 bn since April 2009, show the confidence of global enterpreneurs and industries too.
3. The markets may commence an upward movement straight away but even if profit booking corrects the market in short term, the fundamentals are good enough for an annual return of 15%-20% over next 3-5 years. A good time to add on investments and initiate investments in Indian equity schemes of Indian Mutual Funds too.
4. First week of March 2010 has witnessed global / Foreign Insititutional Investor (FII) investors totaling close to a US$ 1 bn and investors with a view of 3-5 years, the level of Index at 17,000 is fairly priced and offers possibility of annualized gains of 18% - 20% per year.

Best wishes
RAJESH H DHRUVA

Note : As on 11th March , FII investment in March 2010 totals to US $ 2.33 bn

[blrblr]

Nifty to trade in the range of 4800-5300 for Mar and Apr

Good call Sigma. Whats your take on the market now?

[blrblr]

With Sensex breaching 18K, time to revive this thread!

Seriously, I think this rally has some ways to go.

Did I just switch sides from the D&G thread to the S25K? Some may say, I am the contrarian indicator. :)

[Sid]

With Sensex breaching 18K, time to revive this thread!

Seriously, I think this rally has some ways to go.

Did I just switch sides from the D&G thread to the S25K? Some may say, I am the contrarian indicator. :)

I may be the doom & gloom contributor, but frankly quite bullish on Sensex. Don't want to make any predictions though, or else also risk being named in the forecasting thread :)
Unfortunately, for every good news about India, there are 10 bad news. God must really love India, as its somehow able to run while plastered all over.

[blrblr]

A couple of interesting questions:
1. Will the Mar '11 deadline for LTCG to kick in for equity have a major impact on the market?
2. Will it cross the previous high of 21k before then?

[dbs]

I may be the doom & gloom contributor, but frankly quite bullish on Sensex. Don't want to make any predictions though, or else also risk being named in the forecasting thread :)
Unfortunately, for every good news about India, there are 10 bad news. God must really love India, as its somehow able to run while plastered all over.

I am about to cash an investment (made in 92) that is about 5% of my investible funds and happy to wait as I am part of the gloom and doom team.

[blrblr]

I am about to cash an investment (made in 92) that is about 5% of my investible funds and happy to wait as I am part of the gloom and doom team.

IMO: You should cash it in this market & then wait to re-invest. Was that what u meant?

[dbs]

This is like I am getting my money back, cash given to some one and I am getting it bcak now as a faild investment. If I had won, it would have been like 100% of my current owned capital, but fates have not been kind, so there it is.
As a matter of fact, I am planning to hold cash for at least next six months, amybe longer.

[rabtag]

Unfortunately, for every good news about India, there are 10 bad news. God must really love India, as its somehow able to run while plastered all over.

General anecdote from my little experience, markets that climb wall of worry are more resilient. Markets that climb because it is obvious can turn on a dime and are more prone to bigger break outs on volatility. Once the discount disappears the move is over. You should welcome bad news if the markets keep shrugging it off.

[dhindia]

does anyone know what happened with punj lloyd and zee news. there share prices have dropped considerably. reason i ask - i hold them in my india a/c which i happened to check yesterday after an year or so and then tried to see if there was a stock split or something