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Why is there such a huge tracking error on the Gold ETF? I was looking at Quantum Gold (ETF=0.5gm) and the current rate of gold. The maximum delta today touched about Rs 110/gm.

ETF rate: http://www.quantumamc.com/SchemesNAV/nav.aspx
Gold rate: http://goldprice.org/gold-price-india.html

Experts, any idea why is there such a huge difference?

blrblr;292894Why is there such a huge tracking error on the Gold ETF? I was looking at Quantum Gold (ETF=0.5gm) and the current rate of gold. The maximum delta today touched about Rs 110/gm.

ETF rate: http://www.quantumamc.com/SchemesNAV/nav.aspx
Gold rate: http://goldprice.org/gold-price-india.html

Experts, any idea why is there such a huge difference?

Expense ratio would make the price of gold per ounce a bit higher with the GLD than the spot price. Note that expense ratio chipping away is not a one time deal, it is ongoing and hence over time there can be quite a bit of tracking error, that will probably get resolved via reverse split or some such action.

Thanks Desi.

I am not sure if the expense ratio is the only reason, as I see the tracking error vary quite a bit over time. I remember it being much more when prices are going up (yesterday max was almost 0.12%) than when they are coming down (i remember it being very close to spot prices on some days during the last price correction).

On a related, but different note, do expectations of a near term correction influence the price of ETFs, while it may not affect spot rates that much?

blrblr, Quantum gold ETF is allowed to keep upto 10% in money market instruments at anytime - does this explain the divergence in tracking error (over and above the expense ratio) ? This may also explain why the divergence increases when gold price goes up - not all your money is participating in the gold move higher.

This 10% flexibility may have been given to the fund manager due to operational reasons. If a fund manager is continuously buying and selling new units, he needs to have a certain amount in cash/liquid instrument. I have also heard that some fund managers play around with the level of cash based on their view of where gold is headed, which is unethical. Does Quantum publish historical level of gold holdings as a percentage of the portfolio ?

does this explain the divergence in tracking error

I don't really know. I somehow tend to think the expectations of a near term correction play a significant role in the ETF price. In the above scenario, the price corrected sharply in the next couple of days.

Maybe liquidity (or rather the lack of it!) is another reason for the tracking error. The trading volumes on ETFs in India is not all that great.

Possible. Any traded instrument will have its own demand-supply and expectations of future price movements, which could cause deviations/skew from the underlying. Only that whose value is mathematically calculated (eg. Nifty) will not deviate from the underlying. But such skew cannot last long as it provides arbitrage opportunities. Quantum has appointed brokers and high net worth individuals who can buy/sell units directly with the fund - ideally, if the skew gets big, such players may step in and either eliminate the skew or reduce it to insignificant levels.