r2i forum

This is the pessimistic scenario, that maybe we are living at the wrong time and we may witness the withering of western civilization, but unfortunately I only see loss of freedom spreading everywhere since most countries are descending into Autocracy/Authoritarian form of govt.
Maybe end of democracy for sometime?

But there is a good chance that sensible people will prevail and not lets things slip away like "the Germans and Italians during Hitler and Mussolini"

[QUOTE]I think the most likely scenario is what I call the Roman scenario. We might resemble the Roman Republic, where a populist by the name of Tiberius Gracchus won power late in the second century BC riding on a wave of discontent about economic stagnation and a rigged political system. He was eventually removed from office, violently as it happened, and for a few years things returned to normal. But then somebody else used the fact that the underlying problems hadn?t been resolved to gain office on a similar message. And conflict broke out again. There was a cycle of this, from high moments of political tension and drama to moments of relative normality for some 50, 100 years. And over time, the Roman Republic withered away.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/437mmq/this-is-how-american-democracy-could-end

Maybe???

The invincibility aura was impregnated by Osama, and soon the decline of US after W took us to Iraq fiasco! This drained trillions of dollars and national attention from other pressing issues, whereas China continued on the progress path! W?s tax cuts gave us the financial downturn in 2008! All in all W Bush will go down in history as the one who started and precipitated the decline of US!

Obama kinda resurrected US economy my. History may regard him as the first black president , but otherwise he would just be a blip!

The real change President is Trump who is bringing out the nation?s tracist, xenophobic second amendment crowd out and with their help may suspend democracy even violently if required.

With his praise of China, NK leaders he had shown preference for strongmen, and after today?s private meeting with Putin, he acquiesced totally and handed the leadership mantle to Putin!

Duterte, Erdogan are on the rise! Far right is rising in Germany! Modi maybe losing grip, but his upper middle class supporters may bless him going the Erdogan way!

Democracy and decent society is in peril!

This is a question that comes up in my mind often,but there a few things to consider

1. As a society we made a lot of progress considering that we started off bludgeoning each other to death. Global response to Ebola outbreak, global response to Indian ocean Tsunami and for that matter , though small in magnitude, the global response to Thai children . Most of this response has been through NGOs . To a certain extent there is only so much Trump , Erdogan or Modi can control in this day and age.


2. We all generally feel have a much more pessimistic outlook for society than we have for our own personal future. This is called the optimism gap . This a known bias. The fact that negative news get consistently highlighted only fuels the gap. Some one said "news is about things happen, it is not about things that do not happen ". It is hard to report on peaceful times in Serbia since the war or the rebuilding of Iraq,but very easy to report the air strikes on Yemen or Donald Trump's rabid rants . Again people's thinking is clouded by what is called availability/recency bias . We estimate the probability of an outcome by the ease with which we can recall events in the recent past . All the coverage only helps fuel more pessimistic perception of outcomes .


3.The idea of decline of western civilization is not new. It has been in vogue since Nietzsche with continued proponents like Theodore Adorno. The conflict between "progressivists " and "declinists " has been raging since 17th century . This is a book that was published in 1998 "The Optimism Gap: The I'm Ok-They're Not Syndrome and the Myth of American Decline Hardcover – August 1, 1998"

4. We have to believe in this idea of progress. The erosion of this belief might lead to the rise of these tyrants than the other way around . The chick- egg effect .


[QUOTE]

“The idea of decline is no more, no less, correct than the idea of progress. History is neither progress nor decline alone. It is both. What is determinative in the historian's judgment is simply that aspect of the present he chooses to illuminate.”

-Robert Nisbit

I would recommend reading Steven Pinkers " Enlightenment now ". A great work that addresses these concerns

As long as the best and brightest keep moving to USA, she will be fine :)

I wonder if people were thinking the same during Hitler/Mussolini time?

As per my knowledge, the last bottom for Europe was during Hitler/Mussolini induced mass deaths leading to millions perishing due to mad men's delusion.

Being optimistic is easy, but there is a slippery slope, almost akin to escape velocity, after which we reach a point of no return and freedom will be gone for everyone....

Imagine that in 2021, Trump and Putin are ruling the world. Trump has successfully replaced supreme court with pro religious and pro white people....FBI is a complete tool of the administration due to complete revamp in 3-5 layers of top being pro religious and pro white.

Same with defence, homeland security etc...

Its not that hard to find qualified people who are religious extremists and believe that white is the superior people and the natural ruling class of America.

But we can all relax and assume that this is not Germany/Italy of 1920/1930s.

TowardsHome;677639This is a question that comes up in my mind often,but there a few things to consider

1. As a society we made a lot of progress considering that we started off bludgeoning each other to death. Global response to Ebola outbreak, global response to Indian ocean Tsunami and for that matter , though small in magnitude, the global response to Thai children . Most of this response has been through NGOs . To a certain extent there is only so much Trump , Erdogan or Modi can control in this day and age.


2. We all generally feel have a much more pessimistic outlook for society than we have for our own personal future. This is called the optimism gap . This a known bias. The fact that negative news get consistently highlighted only fuels the gap. Some one said "news is about things happen, it is not about things that do not happen ". It is hard to report on peaceful times in Serbia since the war or the rebuilding of Iraq,but very easy to report the air strikes on Yemen or Donald Trump's rabid rants . Again people's thinking is clouded by what is called availability/recency bias . We estimate the probability of an outcome by the ease with which we can recall events in the recent past . All the coverage only helps fuel more pessimistic perception of outcomes .


3.The idea of decline of western civilization is not new. It has been in vogue since Nietzsche with continued proponents like Theodore Adorno. The conflict between "progressivists " and "declinists " has been raging since 17th century . This is a book that was published in 1998 "The Optimism Gap: The I'm Ok-They're Not Syndrome and the Myth of American Decline Hardcover – August 1, 1998"

4. We have to believe in this idea of progress. The erosion of this belief might lead to the rise of these tyrants than the other way around . The chick- egg effect .




-Robert Nisbit

I would recommend reading Steven Pinkers " Enlightenment now ". A great work that addresses these concerns

[QUOTE]I wonder if people were thinking the same during Hitler/Mussolini time?

As per my knowledge, the last bottom for Europe was during Hitler/Mussolini induced mass deaths leading to millions perishing due to mad men's delusion.

True . 20 th cenury saw not only Hitler, Mussolini but also ,Stalin, Polpot, and Mao purges .

Stalin and Polpot killed more people individually than Hitler and Mussolini . Stalin is also credited with playing a major role in crushing Germany . 20th century also saw leaders like Gandhi, Mandela and Helmut Kohl. Women's rights , civil rights , America transitioning from politically corrupt gilded ages to a largely transparent and accountable democracy AND addition of social net after the great depression also mark 20 th century.Despite all the right tilt, Angela Merkel is still holding on, Mariane LaPen lost , and Jeremy Corbyn manages to hold his own against May . Trudeau unfortunately is a joke That is a different issue


[QUOTE]
Being optimistic is easy, but there is a slippery slope, almost akin to escape velocity, after which we reach a point of no return and freedom will be gone for everyone....

Being optimistic does not exclude fighting for what you believe in .Helpless resignation does that . Optimism encourages fighting for what you believe in while choosing to look at the positives with out being despondent . In fact that pessimism in white working class is what led to rise of this orange buffoon. What makes you think that there won't be a socialist/anti-fa tyrant that will exploit the despondency on left ?


[QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Imagine that in 2021, Trump and Putin are ruling the world. Trump has successfully replaced supreme court with pro religious and pro white people....FBI is a complete tool of the administration due to complete revamp in 3-5 layers of top being pro religious and pro white.

Same with defence, homeland security etc...

As Yogi Berra said , it is tough to make predictions, especially about future :) . Even if Ginsburg dies or something else happens, we should not assume that a SC justice will do the bidding of this orange buffoon. For example the Nixon Appointee ultra conservative Justice Blackmun wrote the Roe vs Wade. Bush appointee CJ Roberts voted for the ACA, Either way the court has tilted right even now .As far as another dimension of worry - climate change goes, remember the times when the rivers caught fire in Cleveland and Los Angeles was choking in dirty air ? We made a lot of progress. Free market is already showing the way. There are no takers for coal despite lot of bravado



[QUOTE]Its not that hard to find qualified people who are religious extremists and believe that white is the superior people and the natural ruling class of America.

But we can all relax and assume that this is not Germany/Italy of 1920/1930s.

It is expected . The demographics of USA are changing and changing rapidly. It is last ditch effort to hang on to the notion that the nation be run by people who look similar to them . While we cannot ignore the lessons of History, we can also not afford pessimism or despondency.

Optimism is the path to complacency...

Pessimism is risk analysis and acceptance of negative possibilities and preparing/working to oppose that.

It there is nothing to worry then why would we bother? Why should I list all the good times when there is a storm looming, how is that going to help us?

You go over history citing the positives and negatives as though they are the same.........to me they are not.............in my history men should not allow Hitler and Mussolini to take over thriving democracies and make it into killing fields.

If I was to follow your view: We got nothing to worry people......this is a minor hiccup we may see another Hitler/Mussolini but after 15-20 years of blood letting......we will be all right....no big deal....after that maybe we will get free health care and working people will not go hungry..

TowardsHome;677654True . 20 th cenury saw not only Hitler, Mussolini but also ,Stalin, Polpot, and Mao purges .

Stalin and Polpot killed more people individually than Hitler and Mussolini . Stalin is also credited with playing a major role in crushing Germany . 20th century also saw leaders like Gandhi, Mandela and Helmut Kohl. Women's rights , civil rights , America transitioning from politically corrupt gilded ages to a largely transparent and accountable democracy AND addition of social net after the great depression also mark 20 th century.Despite all the right tilt, Angela Merkel is still holding on, Mariane LaPen lost , and Jeremy Corbyn manages to hold his own against May . Trudeau unfortunately is a joke That is a different issue




Being optimistic does not exclude fighting for what you believe in .Helpless resignation does that . Optimism encourages fighting for what you believe in while choosing to look at the positives with out being despondent . In fact that pessimism in white working class is what led to rise of this orange buffoon. What makes you think that there won't be a socialist/anti-fa tyrant that will exploit the despondency on left ?




As Yogi Berra said , it is tough to make predictions, especially about future :) . Even if Ginsburg dies or something else happens, we should not assume that a SC justice will do the bidding of this orange buffoon. For example the Nixon Appointee ultra conservative Justice Blackmun wrote the Roe vs Wade. Bush appointee CJ Roberts voted for the ACA, Either way the court has tilted right even now .As far as another dimension of worry - climate change goes, remember the times when the rivers caught fire in Cleveland and Los Angeles was choking in dirty air ? We made a lot of progress. Free market is already showing the way. There are no takers for coal despite lot of bravado





It is expected . The demographics of USA are changing and changing rapidly. It is last ditch effort to hang on to the notion that the nation be run by people who look similar to them . While we cannot ignore the lessons of History, we can also not afford pessimism or despondency.

techynt;677658Optimism is the path to complacency...

Pessimism is risk analysis and acceptance of negative possibilities and preparing/working to oppose that.

It there is nothing to worry then why would we bother? Why should I list all the good times when there is a storm looming, how is that going to help us?

You go over history citing the positives and negatives as though they are the same.........to me they are not.............in my history men should not allow Hitler and Mussolini to take over thriving democracies and make it into killing fields.

If I was to follow your view: We got nothing to worry people......this is a minor hiccup we may see another Hitler/Mussolini but after 15-20 years of blood letting......we will be all right....no big deal....after that maybe we will get free health care and working people will not go hungry..

We are not speaking the same language unfortunately

I am arguing against catastrophizing in the light of progress we continue to make as a society. As far as Hitler and Mussolini go, that is recency bias. More number of people died in Bengal famines 10 million in the 1700s and 3 million in 1940s .Given the global food security , the chances of such famine across a large part of the country recurring is very low save for a asteroid strike or a nuclear winter

Even 50 years ago no one thought gay marriages would be legal , african american would be a president and the world would be able to reduce their nuclear stock pile by 90% . Even if you told me in 2000 that AIDS would be eradicated in sub Saharan Africa with medications made in India brought with help of US AID , I would not have believed it

I do not believe that catastrophizing will produce any more effective solutions that vigilant optimism . I have faith in checks and balances and the general progress of the human society


No matter what we believe in, progress is never linear . It will happen with two steps forward and one step backward. My point is not to lose to the focus on the progress we made as a society

Here is where I would respectfully disengage as I get your point and I hope I was able to convey mine

Most people averse to Modi, Trump, etc. will predict a doomsday scenario because they are intolerant to a diff school of thought or a different way of doing things. We have not seen India turn into Hindu Taliban as some had predicted although Tharoor is still hallucinating about it, nor have we seen Indian economy go into a spiral because of RSS economics instead of RR econ. I think an apocalyptic scenario as predicted by some cannot happen in a short time due to one or two fellows in the modern days. The fallacy in such predictions becomes evident from whom the predictors blame for such a possibility. It is never Obama or MMS. They are always the good guys with not a blemish in their record, leadership, character, etc...

Having said that, I have heard that US power would diminish in the years to come but it will not happen as drastically as USSR collapse. I tend to think that it is a natural phenomenon just like the diminishing of British power. As long as US remains the hub of innovation, it will keep leading no matter who is their Prez. However, USCs can take heart in the fact that although UK lost its superpower status, it still has considerable soft power and influence around the world:)

I feel like your tone is that of........a category 5 storm is approaching and you are like yes that happens a lot nothing to it.....it will pass.....no need to prepare....no need to evacuate town....

All I am saying is, maybe that storm is going to cause Katrina like damage.....and preparation is needed to avoid more damage. Or at least acknowledge that its a very damaging event.

In our case, that storm can be stopped with the power of enough people acting on it instead of doing wishful thinking.

I still don't get it why people start listing all the things from history when we are raising awareness of a world changing event?

Yes, we get it, good things happen too. But right now, the discussion is, will Hitler/Mussolini repeat?

I am not sure you can equate every calamity in history....with those of people voting megalo-maniacs crazy men.......who caused disasters. I am surprised you did not bring up the great flood and Noah.

Agreed, we have said enough on this....I think we have beaten this horse enough :)

TowardsHome;677659We are not speaking the same language unfortunately

I am arguing against catastrophizing in the light of progress we continue to make as a society. As far as Hitler and Mussolini go, that is recency bias. More number of people died in Bengal famines 10 million in the 1700s and 3 million in 1940s .Given the global food security , the chances of such famine across a large part of the country recurring is very low save for a asteroid strike or a nuclear winter

Even 50 years ago no one thought gay marriages would be legal , african american would be a president and the world would be able to reduce their nuclear stock pile by 90% . Even if you told me in 2000 that AIDS would be eradicated in sub Saharan Africa with medications made in India brought with help of US AID , I would not have believed it

I do not believe that catastrophizing will produce any more effective solutions that vigilant optimism . I have faith in checks and balances and the general progress of the human society


No matter what we believe in, progress is never linear . It will happen with two steps forward and one step backward. My point is not to lose to the focus on the progress we made as a society

Here is where I would respectfully disengage as I get your point and I hope I was able to convey mine