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US Economic collapse - A mathematical certainity?
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 9:37 pm
by chand28
At a national level, US is bankrupt and heavily in debt, and at individual level, pretty much US is living on debt. Dollar is on life support and if true market forces were acting without intervention, US dollar is similar to argentinian currency few years ago.
The deficit of the past were used to fund building bridges and roads and factories, now it is used to fund war and buy plasma tv's. We have lost manufacturing and only service jobs remain. Service jobs by and large is working in walmart or flipping burgers in walmart.For above reasons, this recession is not just another recession,but an end of an empire ( ronpaul).
These are the type of claims i keep hearing from news everywhere. is the scenario so gloomy?
US Economic collapse - A mathematical certainity?
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 12:57 am
by layman
chand28;93313At a national level, US is bankrupt and heavily in debt, and at individual level, pretty much US is living on debt. Dollar is on life support and if true market forces were acting without intervention, US dollar is similar to argentinian currency few years ago.
The deficit of the past were used to fund building bridges and roads and factories, now it is used to fund war and buy plasma tv's. We have lost manufacturing and only service jobs remain. Service jobs by and large is working in walmart or flipping burgers in walmart.For above reasons, this recession is not just another recession,but an end of an empire ( ronpaul).
These are the type of claims i keep hearing from news everywhere. is the scenario so gloomy?[/quote]
Probably you should change the channel!:emteeth:
US Economic collapse - A mathematical certainity?
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 1:17 am
by r2i_100
chand28;93313At a national level, US is bankrupt and heavily in debt, and at individual level, pretty much US is living on debt. Dollar is on life support and if true market forces were acting without intervention, US dollar is similar to argentinian currency few years ago.
The deficit of the past were used to fund building bridges and roads and factories, now it is used to fund war and buy plasma tv's. We have lost manufacturing and only service jobs remain. Service jobs by and large is working in walmart or flipping burgers in walmart.For above reasons, this recession is not just another recession,but an end of an empire ( ronpaul).
These are the type of claims i keep hearing from news everywhere. is the scenario so gloomy?[/quote]
Well, its a matter of faith in US economy, and I see that dwindling but not whole lot, given you have $100 to put in a bank, would you choose, Bank Of America or State Bank of India? Saudi Sheiks are puring $$$ in Las Vegas, Indian companies (Tata, WIT, Mittels) are on buying spree mainly assets in US, I see this trend becoming stronger as $ becomes cheaper, it just shows folks worldwide are interested in US assets but are waiting for a deal. this may be a correction phases and may last for long time but overall I feel US will come out of this...
US Economic collapse - A mathematical certainity?
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 1:32 am
by abuSibu
r2i_100;93355given you have $100 to put in a bank, would you choose, Bank Of America or State Bank of India? QUOTE]
Exactly! It doesn't matter if US in debt, it matters only if the creditors ask for repayment!!! US is the most stable/powerful economy where the globe wants to park their money and not bother to pull out forever.
US Economic collapse - A mathematical certainity?
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 4:40 am
by vinod
.........
US Economic collapse - A mathematical certainity?
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 5:30 am
by chand28
Assuming Faith or credibility is a function of one's past deeds,actions and promises kept.If so, our current actions,wont it cause an erosion of faith down the road?
US has seen several gloomy scenarios in the past, vietnam war era, carter's rule,cuba crisis etc.and this recession could be just one of them..but right now, good will and blind faith looks to be driving the world's largest economy..And not sure if it is going well.
U never know !
US Economic collapse - A mathematical certainity?
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 6:15 am
by Bobus
In the developed world, are Japan and Europe doing better than US, and if so, on what parameters? Europe and Japan seem less open and more restrictive on business than US - it will tell on the competitive ability of firms there, sooner or later. My hunch / speculation is that US stock market has seen its bottom, though it may remain flat for some time. Am thinking of moving some funds from Japan and Europe funds to US.
Regarding India, Vinod had posted well.
Regarding deficit spending for war and the past, the assertions that OP has gathered dont seem consistent with data.
US Economic collapse - A mathematical certainity?
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 6:42 am
by Desi
I am not so sure if OP knows how much or how little of US income is used to service the national debt and terms like bankrupt etc would not have been used. I would prefer if OP did some research and posted the US Treasury Gross income and expense breakdown or at least the amount that is used to service debt and then also look at budget deficit and changes year over year as a percentage.
Once, OP puts those numbers, his views may change.
US Economic collapse - A mathematical certainity?
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 7:14 am
by shreekarthik
OP sure US economy is on the brink but the fundamentals of this country are strong. It may lurch from one bubble to another (.com to housing to commodity) and so on but consider those bubbles as sort of parting the money from fools.
At a macro-level, trade deficit is huge but what can the other side do ? China or Japan or whatever nation cannot dump their $$s. Heck they are coming here to invest (read sovereign funds). You see china taking a big stake in blackstone, you see the arabs taking stake in AMD increasing their stake in Citibank. If there's one nation where you can prosper by working hard, that nation is still the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. And as long as it remains the same, rewarding hard working and law abiding citizens, don't even think of comparing to Argentina or Thailand....
US Economic collapse - A mathematical certainity?
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 8:29 am
by chand28
I am not worried about macro level. Just look at micro level, u and your neighbor ( I live in south florida, epicenter of housing debacle). Every second person is stiffling with debt and so far had the housing to support their lavish lifestyle. Look at your stagnant paycheck and then compare the price u r paying for milk and eggs.
South florida's job market is on lifesupport, thanks to the european tourist flocking in because of the dollar.The entire job market(that has been wiped out) was housing related. Construction companies, salesmen, handymen,plumbers,mortgage underwriters, inspection officers etc
Macro level is reserved for economists and analysts.
ex :Inflation is 2-4%,but is really 12% by using same formula used in 80's (
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data). House ownership was replaced with rent and food and fuel is not part of inflation calculation ( food and fuel are added as part of headline numbers).
China and Japan cannot dump existing trillions of dollars,but they may not have to continue accumulating more and more dollar reserves. We need them to continue pile on dollars for us to survive. For now, can we unwillingly agree that we have handed over our destiny in the hands of the Chinese,Arabs and sovereign funds. If they decided to pull the plug, what happens?