r2i forum

QEII coming to an end.
Nasdaq officially loosing all the gains for the year, and S&P500 not far behind.
Job market not growing as much as everyone expected.
Silver prices have already crashed 25% from their peak.

Has the recession of 2011 already started?
What are the investment strategies you are planning to follow for the short term?
Are you already out, or planning to move out of your speculative stock investments?

I agree on this. Apart from the technicalities of recession - 2 straight quarters of declining GDP i guess US is in deep economic shit. Once Helicopter Ben's printing presses close after QE2 nobody knows how bad the situation will turn out to be. Also housing prices are confirmed to be in double dip.

-kcube

sid_earth;393788QEII coming to an end.
Nasdaq officially loosing all the gains for the year, and S&P500 not far behind.
Job market not growing as much as everyone expected.
Silver prices have already crashed 25% from their peak.

Has the recession of 2011 already started?
What are the investment strategies you are planning to follow for the short term?
Are you already out, or planning to move out of your speculative stock investments?

?Bernanke comments keep equities in check,? says a headline in the Financial Times.

Sure enough. The Dow ended down again ? 21 points down. It?s been going down for five weeks. But it?s still above 12,000. So there?s nothing to be alarmed about.

What did Ben Bernanke say? Not much really. He admitted that the economy was not as strong as he had hoped. But he said things were getting better. And he didn?t mention QE3.

So why was the market unhappy? What difference did it make what Bernanke said?

Ah... that?s the funny thing. Stock prices are now the responsibility neither of willing buyers nor sellers, neither of the bears nor the bulls... but of the US central bank.

...........
And so, the stock market comes to reflect neither the economy nor what stocks are worth. Instead, it shows what speculators think they can make from anticipating Ben Bernanke?s next move. They watch the Fed. If Bernanke looks like he is going to pump in more money, they buy. If they?re not sure, they wait. If they think the Fed is pulling out of the stock market, they sell.
.............
?Wait a minute, DBS, are you saying that the Fed is manipulating the stock market??

Yep.

?Isn?t that against the law??

Yep.

?How does the Fed get away with it? How come the SEC doesn?t come down hard??

Oh, you silly goose. Stop asking stupid questions. The market is fixed. The SEC is in on it. It?s all part of the zombie system of finance.

Looks like economy is not doing well. But, there will be lot of effort spent to repair the economy before the election. So, a big crash may not happen. Fed might infuse more money to make the economy chug along.

sid_earth;393788
What are the investment strategies you are planning to follow for the short term?
Are you already out, or planning to move out of your speculative stock investments?

I'm pretty excited about upcoming sale. Building up cash position for the last 6-8 months, today was first trade of the year.

It'll be great if S&P touches 700-800 range again in next few months :), had not sold any equity that I bought when S&P was in that range earlier.

NoChaos;393819I'm pretty excited about upcoming sale. Building up cash position for the last 6-8 months, today was first trade of the year.

It'll be great if S&P touches 700-800 range again in next few months :), had not sold any equity that I bought when S&P was in that range earlier.

Yes, actually I too am a bit inclined towards this approach. This time I will be ready for AAPL at $88 ;)
Though, you need to be a bit careful about trying to catch the falling knife.

NoChaos;393819I'm pretty excited about upcoming sale. Building up cash position for the last 6-8 months, today was first trade of the year.

It'll be great if S&P touches 700-800 range again in next few months :), had not sold any equity that I bought when S&P was in that range earlier.

Is it not supposed to touch 1400 by EOY???

sid_earth;393788QEII coming to an end.
Nasdaq officially loosing all the gains for the year, and S&P500 not far behind.
Job market not growing as much as everyone expected.
Silver prices have already crashed 25% from their peak.

Has the recession of 2011 already started?
What are the investment strategies you are planning to follow for the short term?
Are you already out, or planning to move out of your speculative stock investments?

Stay away from stock and buy gold and silver and buy Euro.

Doubt if this would be a huge drop. (to the likes of 700/800 on the S&P). But think there is still some way to go on the correction. I am light on long positions and hold puts on SPY as a hedge.

sid_earth;393788QEII coming to an end.
Nasdaq officially loosing all the gains for the year, and S&P500 not far behind.
Job market not growing as much as everyone expected.
Silver prices have already crashed 25% from their peak.

Has the recession of 2011 already started?
What are the investment strategies you are planning to follow for the short term?
Are you already out, or planning to move out of your speculative stock investments?

sid_earth;393823Though, you need to be a bit careful about trying to catch the falling knife.

Next 10 years I would be net accumulator of equities. As long as my household earning stays same, a deep recession is good for me :).

I bought $300K worth of VTI when S&P was falling down, all trades were executed between when S&P 850-720 (i.e. catching falling knife). It was once a life time opportunity. I hope I'll get another chance, but probability are very low.

[quote]Stay away from stock and buy gold and silver and buy Euro.[/quote]You buy when people sell and you sell when people buy. OR you do before everybody find out.