Strategies against Falling USD

r2iten · Post by **r2iten** » Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:28 pm

They are saying that USD conversion will be stable at INR 35! Heard parking them in Euros / Pounds is a strategy. Any other (better) strategies that you tried / planning to try?

Please note that I am not sure if USD will really go down to INR 35. Assuming it will depreciate, I want to understand the strategies to hedge against it.

Going_nowhere · Post by **Going_nowhere** » Fri Sep 21, 2007 2:15 am

r2iten;46100They are saying that USD conversion will be stable at INR 35! Heard parking them in Euros / Pounds is a strategy. Any other (better) strategies that you tried / planning to try?

Please note that I am not sure if USD will really go down to INR 35. Assuming it will depreciate, I want to understand the strategies to hedge against it.[/quote]

Are you talking about hedging millions of dollars ? :)

OurGen-X · Post by **OurGen-X** » Fri Sep 21, 2007 2:19 am

Here's a snippet from yahoo:

Canadian Dollar at Parity With Greenback
Thursday September 20, 4:47 pm ET
By Jackie Farwell, AP Business Writer US Dollar Reaches Parity With Canadian Dollar, Falls to Record Lows Against Euro, Indian Rupee

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070920/dollar.html

MadMax · Post by **MadMax** » Fri Sep 21, 2007 2:43 am

Postpone R2I. And hope that the $ strengthens. No point in taking such a huge hit.

I, a complete layman, feel that the world cannot take it if the USD crumbles. It will be propped up for sure. When and how, God knows. If not it will be like your bank going belly up.

jinx2007 · Post by **jinx2007** » Fri Sep 21, 2007 3:13 am

Euro probably will be the best bet in the long term. Its probably the begining of the end for USD - my opinion. But I (like many in the US) would like to see USD getting back to its old glory, but that may just be my wishful thinking :)

pjigar · Post by **pjigar** » Fri Sep 21, 2007 7:32 am

Lot of R2Iers have lot of money stuck in 401K and IRAs. If your AAP allows then use 401K and IRA money to invest in to Indian MFs (e.g. MINDX, etc.), developed markets and emerging markets to get some relief from falling dollar. Any liquid cash flow should be invested in India as per your AAP, may be on parent's name to avoid PFIC.

If you really stupid R2Ier like me then you must have bought the house as well ;) In that case, it's double whammy: Falling dollar and falling real estate. I wish I can kick my own ___.

anand1 · Post by **anand1** » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:55 am

Many Indians in US buy homes usually after getting the GC. Many of them even buy while they are on H1. It is usually the peer pressure and an urge to experience the American dream to the fullest.

American home ownership sure appears like a big conspiracy to ground you to US soil forever :)

donut · Post by **donut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:48 pm

The best hedge against any falling currency is GOLD. Today Fed is cutting rates and dollar is falling. Tomorrow owing to pressure from exporters in India, RBI may do something to weaken Rupee. Same thing holds good for EURO,POUND C$ etc. If a currency weakens it helps exporters a lot. Now you will see US GDP picking up led by export growth (not consumption). Any way you should not put entire money in GOLD but having upto 5% of portfolio in GOLD is a good hedge.
I have a related question, Say if someone has plans to R2I but do not want transfer the money and keep it in US. What are the implications? Is there any government rules (US or India) not allowing it??

RRK · Post by **RRK** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 5:27 pm

donut;47864The best hedge against any falling currency is GOLD. Today Fed is cutting rates and dollar is falling. Tomorrow owing to pressure from exporters in India, RBI may do something to weaken Rupee. Same thing holds good for EURO,POUND C$ etc. If a currency weakens it helps exporters a lot. Now you will see US GDP picking up led by export growth (not consumption). Any way you should not put entire money in GOLD but having upto 5% of portfolio in GOLD is a good hedge.
I have a related question, Say if someone has plans to R2I but do not want transfer the money and keep it in US. What are the implications? Is there any government rules (US or India) not allowing it??[/quote]

By your argument, If 5% of the portfolio is invested in Gold, that part remains protected from falling US$. How does it help the rest 95% not losing its value ? What is your assumption of the rest 95% asset allocation ?

donut · Post by **donut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:02 pm

My argument is as follows. I consider hedging as an insurance policy. If I do not have to use it that is great, but would give me some downside protection.
I still believe equities should be held as a very high % in everyone's portfolio. I am not a big believer in bonds but I can live with a go anywhere bond fund like LSBRX or RPSIX.
In equities my strategy to hedge against falling dollar is to hold foreign funds(DODFX etc) and foreign stocks (good multi nationonals across globe listed as ADR). I also buy big blue chip US stocks who get atl east 50% of income from outside US .
The reason one should hold gold is just like an insurance policy. If all hell breaks loose your 5% investment would atleast soar and give you some cushion . But if does "black swan" event does not happen atleast you have the remaining 95% which would compound.
Why not 10% and why 5% ? Recently there was a study by Northern global I think which did all analysis and found that a 5% addition of commoditites to your portfolio could reduce overall risk (negative correlation) and boost return.