long term prospect of r2i and lia

[pqr2012]

r2i is definitely the best option if horizon is > 20 yrs.


Indian equities will give atleast 12% CAGR over next 20-25 yrs.


US equities around 6%.


Re to appreciate by atleast 2% CAGR (due to inflows to India primarily) over next 20-25 yrs.


so 1$ ~ 40Rs by 2040.


so 1cr in eq in 2017 roughly will be around 15 cr 2040.


Now 150k$ in US eq will be around 300k$ by 2040 ~ 1.2 cr Rs 2040


So investment in Indian eq going to be almost 12 times as compared to
US equities.


Overall quality of life(infra, cleanliness, medical etc) to improve in
India dramatically as GDP grows and per capita increases dramatically.


Conclusion : r2i may not be good in short term but people who
have patience and stick to India and prudently invest in Indian equity
will be way better than if they were to lia. Off course if you
are doing very well in career or your net worth > 5 mil$ lia is still
definitely the better option.

[pqr2012]

Going forward India along with China and maybe Germany will make huge advances
in renewable/solar energy space giving huge boast to GDP and create significant jobs.

Huge opportunity for investors/entrepreneurs/startups in these areas.

[pqr2012]

Every day something good is happening in India from macro point of view.

India is extremely lucky to have got a great PM like Mr Modi (I think the best
leader in the world today). I hope and pray he remain PM till 2029.

GST, RERA, etc are huge reforms by 2019-20 Indian GDP will
hit > 9%.

Next 20-30 years belong to India (my only fear is China gets too jealous and
does something directly or via Pak proxy).

I am very lucky having r2i ed just at right time.

In 20 years India will be envy of many.
By 2050 if China keep on squandering money on useless infra India will
be top in world in GDP.

US politics is in complete shambles ( Mr Trump survived Mr Comey testimony
that shows US politics is at its nadir). US needs a great president latest
by 2020 (but the way things are it is possible Mr Trump may get second term,what a
disaster that will be).

India my mother I love you. Jai Hind.

A proud Indian.

[Umang]

Every day something good is happening in India from macro point of view.

India is extremely lucky to have got a great PM like Mr Modi (I think the best
leader in the world today). I hope and pray he remain PM till 2029.

GST, RERA, etc are huge reforms by 2019-20 Indian GDP will
hit > 9%.

Next 20-30 years belong to India (my only fear is China gets too jealous and
does something directly or via Pak proxy).

I am very lucky having r2i ed just at right time.

In 20 years India will be envy of many.
By 2050 if China keep on squandering money on useless infra India will
be top in world in GDP.

US politics is in complete shambles ( Mr Trump survives Mr Comey testimony
that shows US politics is at its nadir).

India my mother I love you. Jai Hind.

A proud Indian.

Haha! These posts are great.

[wd40]

PQR, what are you drinking? I am trying out another awesome beer called Holstein Weizen :)

Regarding India, my concept is very simple. People get the govt they deserve. Also people who don't respect others and treat others in a dignified way can never become great as a civilisation. You mean India needed to wait all this while for a Modi to come and rescue us? This itself tells Indians as a society prefer dictator to democracy. That itself puts us backwards some 50 years.

I am in Romania now and read briefly about its history. They had a communist dictatorship until 1989 when people got fed up and there was a revolution and they killed the president:

Read this entire article and you will find many similarities with Modi :)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution



Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

[Desi]

r2i is definitely the best option if horizon is > 20 yrs.


Indian equities will give atleast 12% CAGR over next 20-25 yrs.

with inflation running at 8%.

US equities around 6%.

with inflation running at 2.5%.

Without questioning your projections on equity growth, I have a simple question, when you make predictions like that do you realize that inflation plays a major role. When inflation is 10%, a 12% CAGR becomes meaningless.

With a 96th percentile GRE and Ivy league scholarship, I am sure you have taken all this into account while making your projections :))

[Desi]

In 20 years India will be envy of many.
By 2050 if China keep on squandering money on useless infra India will
be top in world in GDP.

Absolutely, India will be the top in the world (not world, sorry, I mean universe)

So you think that India GDP will grow from 2 trillion to 50 trillion by 2050? Brilliant!!!!!!!!!!

(btw, just curious if you understand GDP per capita)

US politics is in complete shambles ( Mr Trump survived Mr Comey testimony
that shows US politics is at its nadir). US needs a great president latest
by 2020 (but the way things are it is possible Mr Trump may get second term,what a
disaster that will be).

Not at its Nadir yet, but will hit Nadir after Mr. Trump gets a second term - right?

India my mother I love you. Jai Hind.

A proud Indian.

Yay, I am different (great song by the way by 2 Chainz).
I have the same love for Indians as I have for Chinese, Pakistanis, Thais, Canadians (BTW, I fell in love with a Pakistani lady I saw the other day). She is beautiful. She has agreed for a dinner date with me.

[dixit]

....

US politics is in complete shambles ( Mr Trump survived Mr Comey testimony
that shows US politics is at its nadir). US needs a great president latest
by 2020 (but the way things are it is possible Mr Trump may get second term,what a
disaster that will be). ....

But less than two weeks back we had a great president....in fact he is (was) the smartest negotiator who was going to get a 2nd term!!

Mr Trump is going to save 100s of billions of dollar for USA in
climate, NATO, NAFTA negotiations and create millions of
jobs.......

But USA is no 1 so he can afford to give a damn to Germany etc.

He is the best negotiator for sure among top world leaders.......

But I think if he survives for 4 yrs he will get 2nd term.

....

I am very lucky having r2i ed just at right time.

....

Just two weeks back Lia was the best option!!

lia is surely the best option.

[Desi]

^^^



I am ROFL

Dixit, you are great.

[pqr2012]

Desi,

First of all where did you get India inflation at 8%. WPI stands at about 5%.

I don't want to get into details of WPI I posted a thread sometime back.

Inflation is a complex issue it is absolutely silly if someone compares India's
WPI with US inflation numbers (the basket is different so it is ridiculous to
compare the two).

I don't want to say a further word. Study inflation properly and then post replies.
Such silly and completely ridiculous posts really don't deserve reply in the first place.

By the way I do understand GDP, per capita etc very well and I know my math very well.
Spend > 5 yrs in one of the top hedge fund. Did you ever in your life attend a i/v
in a hedge fund or wall street IB. What is your level of math competence? How many
PDE have you solved in your life? And you lecture me on finance. First go and learn your math
and then post replies.

I stand by India GDP > 9% by 2020.

I know my math.I know the numbers. I have run > 30 sims after Mr Comey testimony.

I am super bullish on India. I am very confident I will grow my net worth 10 times by 2030
only because I am in India.

Dixit,

I admit my mistake with Mr Trump. I am not interested in politics other than as an investor.
I had no idea Mr Trump has been lying all through and the election was fixed. Actually
Mr Trump's tax policies are good for USA IMO. But obviously if he continues USA will be in a mess.

Regarding Mr Modi India needs a strong leader. My whole net worth is now tied to Modi's policies.
Almost 9yrs of number crunching/research on Indian macro makes me confident on Mr Modi.

We will wait and see 2020 Sensex.