Election result and stock market prediction

jayjohn · Post by **jayjohn** » Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:04 pm

Media says DEM will gain house, Gov and Rep will hold Senate. If that happens market will go down 10% minimum (s&p 2500), if they lose both 2000 or lower. I think Rep will hold both house and senate, in that case expect s&p 3000 easily. Rate will not be hiked in Dec regardless of the result.
Watch list = aal,jblu(expect to air line stock go up due to holiday season 15% min) SQ,gild,appl,amzn, target,walmart(holiday), c,bac, ms,stt. This is my guestimate. Do not throw fire.

layman · Post by **layman** » Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:31 pm

Dems will take over the house. No big change in stock market but in due course economy loses steam naturally, maybe next yr.

srini234 · Post by **srini234** » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:40 pm

if so how does one play out the market especially someone sitting in india who investments are mainly mutual funds in vanguard/fidelity. should move 80% to bonds

ILuvHyd · Post by **ILuvHyd** » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:57 pm

srini234;683920if so how does one play out the market especially someone sitting in india who investments are mainly mutual funds in vanguard/fidelity. should move 80% to bonds

I suggest if you are a passive long term investor like me, just stay the course using DCA if you have additional funds to invest. I am pretty much invested in VT - Vanguard total world ETF with a decent low expense ratio for the diversification it provides. It's very difficult to time the market. If anyone tried to do this by pulling money out during the worst financial crisis or when Trump got elected, they would have lost big time gains/rebounds.

jayjohn · Post by **jayjohn** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:32 am

Pay attention some of Cannabis related stock..might get boost after election , since marijuana is on the ballot in some states and some states try to reduce tax. I would be not short on those stocks. stay some cash.

Desi2return · Post by **Desi2return** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:51 am

ILuvHyd;683925I suggest if you are a passive long term investor like me, just stay the course using DCA if you have additional funds to invest. I am pretty much invested in VT - Vanguard total world ETF with a decent low expense ratio for the diversification it provides. It's very difficult to time the market. If anyone tried to do this by pulling money out during the worst financial crisis or when Trump got elected, they would have lost big time gains/rebounds.

ILuvHyd - Have you compared QQQ against VT in multiple time frames? If not, please do so, you will be amazed with the results. If you were my brother (technically you are one from a different mother :) ) I would have said pull all your funds out of VT or VTI and move them to QQQ and continue your DCA into QQQ. Don't take my words, do a compare for YTD, 1 Yr, 2 Yrs, 5 Yrs, 10 Yrs and see for yourself

jayjohn · Post by **jayjohn** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:39 pm

Seems Dems started taking about impeachment process and Trump tax..etc.. rather than concentrating economy/immigration....They will not let Trump do anything... so I'm pessimistic...any bounce will be selling opportunity, unless you have beaten down stock like appl,amzn or seasonal stocks like wmt, tgt, aal... these stocks will do well. Trump will start blame the DEM for stock correction or any huge market down day....if u r a swing trader keep some cash for in and out.

ILuvHyd · Post by **ILuvHyd** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:17 pm

Desi2return;684037ILuvHyd - Have you compared QQQ against VT in multiple time frames? If not, please do so, you will be amazed with the results. If you were my brother (technically you are one from a different mother :) ) I would have said pull all your funds out of VT or VTI and move them to QQQ and continue your DCA into QQQ. Don't take my words, do a compare for YTD, 1 Yr, 2 Yrs, 5 Yrs, 10 Yrs and see for yourself

The returns are stellar but only issue is it's heavily concentrated and not diversified enough for what I am looking for.

Desi · Post by **Desi** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:35 pm

QQQ has a higher volaility (Beta), so when SP500 drops 5% this can drop 10%. If one is willing to tolerate high volatility (risk in portfolio) then QQQ can help over longer term. However people holding QQQ during 2000 saw their value drop 75% to 85%. A small amount in QQQ can add oomph and risk to portfolio. Non co-related asset classes in a portfolio help a lot to lower portfolio volatility. Over last two months from peak to recent bottom in QQQ was a 12% hit, so while the chances of long term growth are great, it adds high volatility and thus high risk to portfolio. So a lot depends on one's affordability and risk psyche and tolerance.

Desi2return · Post by **Desi2return** » Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:53 pm

Desi;684057QQQ has a higher volaility (Beta), so when SP500 drops 5% this can drop 10%. If one is willing to tolerate high volatility (risk in portfolio) then QQQ can help over longer term. However people holding QQQ during 2000 saw their value drop 75% to 85%. A small amount in QQQ can add oomph and risk to portfolio. Non co-related asset classes in a portfolio help a lot to lower portfolio volatility. Over last two months from peak to recent bottom in QQQ was a 12% hit, so while the chances of long term growth are great, it adds high volatility and thus high risk to portfolio. So a lot depends on one's affordability and risk psyche and tolerance.

Desi Sir - Agreed that QQQ is heavily concentrated where as VTI is heavily diversified. However, Look at % drop from high to low on VTI (09/21 - 10/29) - VTI Lost - 12.31%; Now compare QQQ from its recent high to low ( 10/01 - 10/29) - 14.50%; Essentially the difference is so minor;

But I hear what you are saying regarding volatility