Some unsolicited predictions for R2I folks..

kingeleven · Post by **kingeleven** » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:57 pm

So for those guys thinking about R2I, I think this is the time to offload your RE in US and buy in India... The $$ is at a crazy peak. US RE has just started to slow down. All downhill from here. Stock market at crazy peak. India RE has started picking up ( based on inquiries on my properties in India). Demonetization effect has faded 80%.. If the GDP clocks 7.4+ this quarter, I'm pretty confident

If you want to time the market, this is it folks..

techynt · Post by **techynt** » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:03 pm

kingeleven;680045So for those guys thinking about R2I, I think this is the time to offload your RE in US and buy in India... The $$ is at a crazy peak. US RE has just started to slow down. All downhill from here. Stock market at crazy peak. India RE has started picking up ( based on inquiries on my properties in India). Demonetization effect has faded 80%.. If the GDP clocks 7.4+ this quarter, I'm pretty confident

If you want to time the market, this is it folks..

lets check back in 2 years, these things are hard to predict, I won’t be surprised if INR goes to 100 for a dollar.

kingeleven · Post by **kingeleven** » Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:14 pm

I donno about this INR-USD but I believe Indian RE will outpace any INR depreciation.. So don't ever put money in Indian FD with your USD. lesson learnt..

wd40 · Post by **wd40** » Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:35 pm

techynt;680047lets check back in 2 years, these things are hard to predict, I won?t be surprised if INR goes to 100 for a dollar.

In 2 years? No way. My prediction USDINR will depreciate less than the interest rate differential at this point, which is about 5%.

So 2 years from now, worst case USDINR will be 77.

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techynt · Post by **techynt** » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:11 pm

wd40;680053In 2 years? No way. My prediction USDINR will depreciate less than the interest rate differential at this point, which is about 5%.

So 2 years from now, worst case USDINR will be 77.

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I am not predicting, its just a possibility look at Turkey, Argentina, Venezuela etc..

techynt · Post by **techynt** » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:15 pm

kingeleven;680052I donno about this INR-USD but I believe Indian RE will outpace any INR depreciation.. So don't ever put money in Indian FD with your USD. lesson learnt..

only 5% of the population can afford to buy 25-40 lacs 2 bed apartments but still Indian RE will keep going up, rental yield being less than 1-2% when interest rate is 7%, what gives?

crazyforger · Post by **crazyforger** » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:19 pm

wd40;680053In 2 years? No way. My prediction USDINR will depreciate less than the interest rate differential at this point, which is about 5%.

So 2 years from now, worst case USDINR will be 77.

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There is no stable structure nor maturity for Indian spending.
This should lead to further depreciation......would cross 85 for sure.

kingeleven · Post by **kingeleven** » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:50 pm

techynt;680056only 5% of the population can afford to buy 25-40 lacs 2 bed apartments but still Indian RE will keep going up, rental yield being less than 1-2% when interest rate is 7%, what gives?

I'm just talking about metros. If the GDP keeps strong and everybody and their brother is migrating to cities, this is what will happen.

techynt · Post by **techynt** » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:52 pm

kingeleven;680060I'm just talking about metros. If the GDP keeps strong and everybody and their brother is migrating to cities, this is what will happen.

We need to figure out until what point does the mega cities become unlivable that the top 2% starts to migrate out

kingeleven · Post by **kingeleven** » Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:18 am

techynt;680063We need to figure out until what point does the mega cities become unlivable that the top 2% starts to migrate out

Migrate to where?? People will live in cages like in hongkong..