India\'s Growing population Boon (or) Bane...

[Gacchu]

Excerpts from the article:
India?s population, which stands at roughly 1.1 billion today, is expected to touch 1.5 billion by 2025 and stabilise at around 1.7 billion by 2060, according to the United Nations.
By 2020, it appears that the US will be short of 17 million people of working age, China by 10 million, Japan 9 million and Russia 6 million. India in contrast will have a surplus of around 47 million.
Around 35 per cent of India?s population today is in the 15-59 year age bracket or the prime working-age group. By 2020, 64 per cent of the population will belong to this category.

It is strange the prime working age in india starts from 15. Does it not fall under child labor.
LinK:
http://www.deccanherald.com/Content/Jul122007/editpage2007071112259.asp

Looking at this data, it looks LIA is a good option.the reason being the US population is growing at a reasonable rate and the resources are sufficient for over a period of time and above all the administration is in good hands.
Since there might be a shortage of 17 million people in the working age, landing in a good job is fairly easy when one can get educated . Being familiar with the local language and culture will be a big plus. Of course the immigrants from all over the world can be made to fill the spots too.

On the other hand if you R2I you are joining the growing crowd.So one has to face competition on all fronts school education, college education and also for the jobs.
The other option is to move to the place where there is a mismatch between demand and supply.
As per the article it will be to US/Japan/China/Russia etc.
US culture will be easier to adapt when compared to other ones and also more indians are familiar with english language. In other cases one has to learn a new language.

This also provides a opportunity for more outsourcing of jobs to india from more countries provided one can understand little about those cultures and learn few foreign languages.So there is scope for more opportunities.

Any thoughts,views,analysis on this.....


Here is a chart of the growth of population in India from 1901-2001.
http://www.deccanherald.com/Content/Jul122007/national2007071112204.asp

Intersting notes:
Indian population actually declined during the decade between 1911-1921.

They were actually growing at a less pace till 1951.Looks like boys and girls were engaged more in Independence struggle than getting engaged and married and procreate.

Only the current PM & the former FM's unleashing of the economic reforms did
put a leash on the population growth between 1991-2001. Looks like boys and girls want to work/earn more more and have fun.

[nand]

yes your argument is very valid. To a certain extent population is a asset - more cheap labor available, but there is a limit. I think the optimal population level is somewhere around 500 million. At that level, not only would there be abundant labor supply, but also there would be enough of a share of resources for everyone. At a billion plus the pressure on land and resources is too much. resources + energy + labor = wealth.

[restlessdesi]

Excerpts from the article:
India?s population, which stands at roughly 1.1 billion today, is expected to touch 1.5 billion by 2025 and stabilise at around 1.7 billion by 2060, according to the United Nations.
By 2020, it appears that the US will be short of 17 million people of working age, China by 10 million, Japan 9 million and Russia 6 million. India in contrast will have a surplus of around 47 million.
Around 35 per cent of India?s population today is in the 15-59 year age bracket or the prime working-age group. By 2020, 64 per cent of the population will belong to this category.


On the other hand if you R2I you are joining the growing crowd.So one has to face competition on all fronts school education, college education and also for the jobs.
[/quote]

Most R2I and LIA decisions are made on very personal and unique set of reasons and emotions. With numbers this huge, a small % margin of error translates into millions of jobs/people. Going by the numbers above, in 2020, India will have approx 1.7 billions people, 35 percent (working age) of that will be ~ 595 million. Of these 595 million, there will be a surplus of ~ 47 million work force.

This translates to an unemployment rate of 7.9% in India compared with 4.5% today in US. This would also mean that there are ~550 million jobs in India. Most of us would back ourselves to land one of those rather then spend their lives in a country that is not their first choice ;) i.e. these numbers should have very little bearing on actual r2i or lia decisions.

My 2 cents.

[Desi_by_Nature]

Wow - we'll have a surplus of 47 million IT and BPO people by 2060!

Lets talk about the rising rupee against the $. Thats' more interesting.

[Gacchu]

Wow - we'll have a surplus of 47 million IT and BPO people by 2060!

Lets talk about the rising rupee against the $. Thats' more interesting.

DBN ,
That surplus will be acheived by 2020. not by 2060.
Also this presents a good opportunity for business who want to market product and services to this age group.

[andiron123]

compared with 4.5% today in US. This would also mean that there are ~550 million jobs in India.
.[/quote]

can you add up GOI info and see if they add up to 550 mil.
Also see a vast majority works outside the organized sector. In fact organized manufacturing job base has shrunk (hey rama!) during recent times despite boom.

[Chicago Desi]

India is way overpopulated for her own good. I don't know how anyone can think that this overpopulation is a boon. Unfortunate thing is that no one wants to talk about population control anymore.

[Chicago Desi]

http://www.wakeupcall.org/employment/population_bomb.php
The Population BOMB that can devastate India

1. India's Population Policy - much to catch up & learn from others!
India has 1000 million people. China has 1260 million. Nearly 22 million are born every year in India and ONLY 10 million in China. China has had a more effective population policy than India, although they started in 1970. India's population policy started much earlier, in 1952. By 2045, we shall overtake the Chinese population, with an Indian population of 1550 millions! Life expectancy in China is now 71 years vs 62 years in India. In China the average family size was 3.63 members, in 1998, in India it is 5.63.

2. Literacy in China & India - where are we in 2001?
In the last Century, India's population has increased from 250 to 1000 million, an increase of about 400%! In India, in the last 100 years the actual number of poor people, has steadily increased. In China, all young children go through 9 years of schooling, this ensures 100% literacy. In India it is hardly 50%. China's per capita is US$845 vs US$425 for an Indian. Their GDP is 2.5 times of India.

3. Percentage of people below poverty line - China & India in 2001
Because of China's successful Population Policy, China has added 300 million LESS people, in the last 30 years. China has been able to reduce the people below poverty line to 3%, i.e. only 40 million people. India has 40% or 400 million below the poverty line. We fail to understood the fact why some thinkers and leaders, in India, mention that our population is our strength. How can they make such statements, with so much poverty, illiteracy & a low standard of living? It's a nightmare for the POOR in India! The average age in China, for women to get married, the first time, was 23.57 years, in 1998.

4. India's economic parameters - the simple truth!
India has 17% of the world's population, 2.2% of the land area, 1.4% of the world's GDP and only 0.6% of the world trade. This means that 98.6% of the World's GDP [Buying Power] & 99.4% of the World's Trade is not with India! India must plan larger exports, for increasing the standard of living of its people.

5. Adding population but without the required GDP growth - where are we heading?
Due to a very poorly administered Population Policy, we are adding one Australia per year or one each of all the following countries per year, -- Switzerland + Singapore + Hong Kong + UAE + Bahrain + Oman + Saudi Arabia + Qatar + Kuwait, every year, year after year, but without the GDP, health, literacy and standard of living, that they have! Lack of knowledge of Global Economics, Poor Governance and Inefficient Administration of our Leadership, both political as well as administrative, are very much responsible for this sad and terrible state of affairs in India.

6. Over population + poverty - can unbalance the world!
High population growth can DEVASTATE a Nation and also cause an UNBALANCE in the world, leading to UNSTABILITY in world economics and world peace. When will the Indian Leadership open its eyes & realize the real TRUTH? When will we start really taking more effective action? Hello? Hello?

7. Over population and availability of land?
At the present rate of population growth, the existing grain land will become inadequate to supply food and water to the increasing population. In 1960 the cultivable land was 0.21 hectare per person, this has dropped to about 0.10 hectare in 1999. The water tables are depleting at twice the rate that they are being replenished. Is anybody listening or worried?

8. The poor are exploited in India - do we really care enough
Even today, nearly 400 million people, in India, are below the poverty line. What will happen in the next 45 years, in 2045, when we have added another 550 million people! Overpopulation can ONLY benefit some of the well to do, some of the rich and some Powerful Politicians, as they can then EXPLOIT the Weak and Poor. This is the case in India today. Because of poverty, the poor men, women & children have to bear it!

9. The complacency in India about overpopulation - is frightening!
Are the POOR really enjoying poverty? The 400 million poor would love to have a better life. It is NOT on the top priority agenda of any political party, inspite of the above facts. After 53 years of Independence we are still very poor, where 400 million earn less than Rs. 10 per day or Rs. 3650/yr. or about US$80 per year! What will be the scene, after we add another 550 million people by 2045? This is like adding another USA + Europe, but without the standard of living that they have. Can't we see the disaster ahead?

10. The World is worried - are we?
International agencies, such as the World Watch Institute and others are MORE worried about India than India itself! India is sitting on a Time Bomb, which it refuses to accept, inspite of the extreme poverty of its 400 million poor people, below the poverty line!

11. Media coverage about disadvantages of overpopulation - totally inadequate!
There is inadequate media coverage in TV, Talk Shows, Radio, Cinemas, magazines, newspapers, schools, villages, about, for example, the China-India comparison & about the ill affects on health, drinking water, jobs, sickness, food, education, transport, housing and other aspects of life, due to over population. Everyone agrees, that the way Sanjay Gandhi started solving the Population Problem, was wrong. But does it mean that we should IGNORE it, especially, as we are reeling under the bad and terrible effects of a very high & unmanageable population, and all the disadvantages associated with it?

12. Awareness programs about disadvantages of overpopulation - too few & far apart!
AWARENESS PROGRAMMS, showing the disadvantages due to over population, need to be intensified, by 80 to 100 times. Let the people understand the burden of overpopulation. There must be gentle and indirect disincentives for having large families. Successful examples of other countries, even other states, MUST be communicated. Newspapers & media should be full of it EVERY Hour, EVERY Day & NOT only on World Population Day! The poor are misled to having more and more children.

13. Per capita of India - very close to the poverty line as per World Bank norms!
India has to go in for a very strong and Effective Population Policy. We should learn from others who are better than us. We should NOT only aim to survive, as we have done in the past, but plan to improve the standard of living of all our people. The present per capita, in India, of US$425 per head, is only slightly higher than the World Bank minimum poverty line of US$1 per day or US$365 per year!

14. World Class Governance & Admin. - Foundation Stone to effective implementation!
All this is ONLY possible with Good Governance & Efficient Administration and a very high priority long term Effective Population Policy. Future generations of Indians depend upon us. The attached note attempts to emphasize the crying need for World Class Governance and Good Administration. As it ensures Excellence in all areas of the economy, including Family Planning.

15. Comparison between China-India - This should wake us up!
A comparison between China & India, in the basic economic parameters of annual production & activity, will hopefully, force us to think and act that we need to put our "House in Order", ASAP. Steel 103million/ton/yr vs 19. - Cement 650m/t/y vs 95. - Crude oil 150m/t/y vs 30. - Coal 1300m/t/y vs 300. Tourist arrivals 60m vs 2.5. - FDI US$46billion vs 2. - Exports US$260billion vs 42.- Telephones 220m vs 27. - Food Grain 410 m/t/y vs 208. - Color TV's 400million vs 75. In other basic areas, which benefit the masses, such as Literacy improvement, Population control, Health Care programs, Infrastructure development, Olympic medals, etc, -- China is way ahead of India. At the present rate of growth, it may take India more than 100 years, in some areas, just to catch up!

16. Communication to the Political Parties of India - Party time is over!
We are writing this letter with the firm belief, that you will take suitable action, to make India what it should be. Kindly help us to get the mailing lists of the Think Tanks of the PMO, MOF, RBI & NDA, BJP, RSS, Congress & other parties; so that we could communicate to them and pass on this information.

17. Adjustment for Population increase - The hard facts!
If the GDP grows by 6% per year, as in 2000-2001, the per capita does NOT grow at 6%. It is reduced due to the yearly population increase, and due to inflation and other issues. Therefore the final per capita increase, would be much lesser. This is only, one of the disadvantages, of a ballooning population. The facts need to be communicated to the people of India, as explained above!

[nand]

chicagodesi: 100% agree with your assessment. India is way way over populated. I mentioned that I think 5-600 million is an optimum level of population. Unfortunately the carrying capacity of the land will determine how many survive. There could be cataclysms, massive anarchy and the like and these are natural control mechanisms. The cost of these is horrific - to the rich and poor alike. Look at what happened in Zimbabwe to the white people. Unless there is a common minimum base for everyone, at some point a castro or che or chavez type of person will mobilize the masses into anarchy and revolution and that will be really unfortunate, these guys may have had good intentions but communism has caused more damage than any other form of government. All the progress will come to nought in that case.

The root cause is population and controlling it should be job 1. The rest of the problems will take care of themselves.

[VS007]

The root cause is population and controlling it should be job 1. The rest of the problems will take care of themselves.[/quote]
Dont worry, nature comes to rescue : Aids

Ms Chowdhury addressed the inaugural meeting of the National Women Forum of Indian Network of People Living with HIV/Aids on Monday.
"We are so embarrassed to ask about condoms... We are hypocrites. We have a one billion population and don't want to talk about sex."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6901127.stm