US Stock Market 2016

[Lakshya]

Lakshya,
Do you still have COP, SDRL option?

I have COP stock and not option. For SDRL I dont have option, I mean I have it but no value.:wink At this time stock price is lower than option I bought.:)) Most likely that money is gone....

[techynt]

Things are looking a bit scary now. Real economy can be spooked by stock markets and things can slow down in real economy, its a case of self fulfilling prophecy.

In other words, if market stay down and keep acting bad it affects business sentiment....means less hiring....and all these bad news will then affect consumer sentiment means less shopping....and there we have a self created recession.

What are your thoughts?

[Desi2return]

Things are looking a bit scary now. Real economy can be spooked by stock markets and things can slow down in real economy, its a case of self fulfilling prophecy.

In other words, if market stay down and keep acting bad it affects business sentiment....means less hiring....and all these bad news will then affect consumer sentiment means less shopping....and there we have a self created recession.

What are your thoughts?

At least in theory stock market is forward looking, so if the market is tanking that is a warning sign for the upcoming recession UNLESS the fed intervenes with a QE 4. The day fed announces QE 4 all these gloom and doom will suddenly disappear. In other words, market is staging this drama to twist Fed's arms

[justdoit2552]

At least in theory stock market is forward looking, so if the market is tanking that is a warning sign for the upcoming recession UNLESS the fed intervenes with a QE 4. The day fed announces QE 4 all these gloom and doom will suddenly disappear. In other words, market is staging this drama to twist Fed's arms

that's one possibility.

Last time fed injected money, the emerging economies weren't this bad. If fed does inject money that may revive emerging market for time being.

[dbs]

At least in theory stock market is forward looking, so if the market is tanking that is a warning sign for the upcoming recession UNLESS the fed intervenes with a QE 4. The day fed announces QE 4 all these gloom and doom will suddenly disappear. In other words, market is staging this drama to twist Fed's arms

It is Qe1, QE2 and QE3 that have ruined the economy.

With the cheap money all the companies did was to buy back their shares, pushing up the EPS and pay dividends which went mostly to the rich. The common public did not see the benefit of nil interest in mortgages and loans from banks. QEs have not given the public any more money to spend. QE4 will just postpone the disaster and not prevent it.
If QE4 has to come, it should go to public. Give $1000 or more depending on the quantum of QE4 to each tax payer, not proportional but equal amount to all. That I had suggested in this forum when QE1 was being proposed. That is the only way to enable consumer to spend more and push up demand.

But I am sure Goldman Sachs will prevail and take home money in Sacks.
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Chipping in a bogey feels better than a three putt par.

[techynt]

Giving money to tax payer does not work....these days they dont spend it, they save it.

Rather a public infrastructure work was needed to fill the void left by private investment, but thats not going to happen with divided govt.

There is nothing wrong with companies buying back shares.....its better than they spending it on stupid acquisitions, just look at MSFT buying skype, nokia etc with nothing to show far.

Right now this slowdown is caused by globalisation keeping wages down in western countries....whereas emerging economies do not have consumption driven economy to fill the gap....not to mention the commodity collapse has killed multiple countries cash flow..

It is Qe1, QE2 and QE3 that have ruined the economy.

With the cheap money all the companies did was to buy back their shares, pushing up the EPS and pay dividends which went mostly to the rich. The common public did not see the benefit of nil interest in mortgages and loans from banks. QEs have not given the public any more money to spend. QE4 will just postpone the disaster and not prevent it.
If QE4 has to come, it should go to public. Give $1000 or more depending on the quantum of QE4 to each tax payer, not proportional but equal amount to all. That I had suggested in this forum when QE1 was being proposed. That is the only way to enable consumer to spend more and push up demand.

But I am sure Goldman Sachs will prevail and take home money in Sacks.
___________________________________________
Chipping in a bogey feels better than a three putt par.

[techynt]

I think thats where we are headed. Since I read on bloomberg that upto 70% of companies have reported falling earnings....which means slowdown has been going on since last quarter.

Seems like bears are right this time, economy is definitely slowing down which means next employment report will be real bad.....which means FED will cut interest rate again back to zero and may start QE4.

For those who think QE is bad, IMO, it is the only thing FED can do since congress is in logjam. Do you want labor to be cheap or capital? FED's mandate is to make sure labor does not become cheap and inflation does not go up. Hence they make capital super cheap. Look at Japan's negative interest rates. That maybe the future of world economy. Why? because of wealth inequality and unwillingness of people with wealth to invest in businesses. For a good economy velocity of money has to increase. Unfortunately the 1% people with 95% wealth feel that nothing is worth investing in.

At least in theory stock market is forward looking, so if the market is tanking that is a warning sign for the upcoming recession UNLESS the fed intervenes with a QE 4. The day fed announces QE 4 all these gloom and doom will suddenly disappear. In other words, market is staging this drama to twist Fed's arms

[dbs]

We all know that the economic problems started with the packaging of toxic securities and marketing those by bankers.

I know of no banker or some one from the Street has gone to jail. The QE was to help the bankers not the economy. Some would call it corruption but you decide. Half of the Street was on the brink of bankruptcy. But for QE these would have gone broke or broken up and sold. But QE gave these people that had made this mess more money to make bigger bets and repeated with QE2 and QE3.

Feds continued to give them zero interest money and we are still in the mess. How could it be otherwise.
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Do not free a camel of the burden of his hump; you may be freeing him from being a camel

[techynt]

DBS,

Sorry, I forgot one of my rules and went into this discussion.

My rule is, do not prescribe policies when planning investment. Its not our job to decide what is right or wrong when planning investments. Our job is to anticipate the future policies and their effect and act accordingly.

We all know that the economic problems started with the packaging of toxic securities and marketing those by bankers.

I know of no banker or some one from the Street has gone to jail. The QE was to help the bankers not the economy. Some would call it corruption but you decide. Half of the Street was on the brink of bankruptcy. But for QE these would have gone broke or broken up and sold. But QE gave these people that had made this mess more money to make bigger bets and repeated with QE2 and QE3.

Feds continued to give them zero interest money and we are still in the mess. How could it be otherwise.
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Do not free a camel of the burden of his hump; you may be freeing him from being a camel

[jayjohn]

Bought C for the bounce.